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The Likely

The news, and what's likely next.

Storyline

The Midterms

Races, polls, and battles determining party control of Congress in the 2026 midterm elections.

The big questions

New · The Midterms

Rasmussen generic ballot poll shows Democratic lead narrowing to five points

Rasmussen Reports published a national survey on September 28 showing Democrats leading Republicans 48% to 43% among likely voters. Rasmussen said the lead narrowed from eight points the previous week, when it was 49% to 41%.

The outlook

Democrats lead the generic ballot by more than 8.3 points on Oct 2, 2026

56% Toss-up

↑ 16 points since yesterday · previously 40%

As of Sep 29, 12:34 PM ET · what forecasting markets expect, not a guarantee. How this works

From Rasmussenreports

YouGov poll shows Rick Jackson leading Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia

Reporting on September 23 showed Republican Rick Jackson leading Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms 47% to 44% among likely Georgia voters in a YouGov survey.

Why it mattersThe outcome determines party control of Georgia's executive branch and future statewide policy on local data-center development.

Georgia Governor winner? Rick Jackson leadsToss-up52%▲ from 42% a week ago

From 13WMAZ, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Fox5Atlanta and 3 more

Cook Political Report shifts Florida 27th District race to Lean Republican

Cook Political Report shifted Florida's 27th Congressional District race from Likely Republican to Lean Republican on Sept 25. The report cited recent polling and Hispanic-voter backlash toward the Trump administration amid María Elvira Salazar's campaign against Eliott Rodriguez.

Why it mattersEligible residents must register by October fifth if they want to vote in this tightening congressional race.

FL-27 House winner? Maria Elvira Salazar leadsLikely60%

From Politico, Wlrn, Floridapolitics and 2 more

Cliff Johnson outraises Trent Kelly in at least two quarters

Democratic challenger Cliff Johnson outraised incumbent Republican Representative Trent Kelly in at least a couple of quarters, according to a Mississippi Today report published on September 15.

Why it mattersThe race will determine who represents Mississippi's 1st Congressional District in the U.S. House.

What will be the margin of victory between the top two candidates in Mississippi’s 1st District House election? Republican 20-25% leadsUnlikely36%▲ from 14% yesterday