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The Likely

The news, and what's likely next.

Storyline

2028

Early positioning, potential candidates, and nominations for the 2028 U.S. presidential election.

The big questions

Who will win the 2028 presidential election?JD Vance21%Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%Jon Ossoff12% Who will be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028?Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez18%Gavin Newsom17%Jon Ossoff16% Who will be the Republican presidential nominee in 2028?J.D. Vance51%Marco Rubio15%Tucker Carlson3%

New · 2028

Ari Emanuel says Donald Trump called Vance and Rubio formidable group

Ari Emanuel said on September 23 that Donald Trump privately described Vice President Vance and Marco Rubio as a formidable group, interpreting the remark to mean a joint 2028 ticket.

Why it mattersThe remarks signal how Donald Trump might shape the race to choose the next Republican presidential nominee.

The outlook

Who will Donald Trump endorse in the 2028 presidential election? J.D. Vance leads

47% Toss-up

As of Sep 29, 12:33 PM ET · what forecasting markets expect, not a guarantee. How this works

From Hollywoodreporter, The Hill, The Washington Post and 3 more

The full story: how we got here, what's likely next, all coverage →