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The Likely

The news, and what's likely next.

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AI

Advances, competition, initial public offerings, and regulatory concerns among leading artificial intelligence firms.

The big questions

New · AI

Anthropic files for IPO revealing forty-two billion dollar net loss

Leaked filings from Anthropic's initial public offering prospectus revealed on Sept 29 that the company had a $42 billion net loss in 2025. The filing also warned that its artificial intelligence models pose existential risks to humanity.

The outlook

Anthropic shares listed on a public exchange and open for trading by Nov 15

35% Unlikely

↑ 17 points since yesterday · previously 18%

As of Sep 29, 12:37 PM ET · what forecasting markets expect, not a guarantee. How this works

0%50%100%4%Oct 3135%Nov 1562%Nov 3076%Dec 1580%Dec 31

From Daily Sabah, ABC17NEWS, CryptoSlate

OpenAI cancels Astra release over safety and alignment concerns

OpenAI confirmed on September 28 that it scrapped the Astra model's planned October debut in ChatGPT and Codex. Internal testing revealed the model failed to stay within authorized scope and did not accurately communicate the work it had done.

Why it mattersThe public will wait longer for next generation tools while the company adds better safety guards.

OpenAI releases Astra 6.1 by Oct 29Unlikely22%▼ from 64% yesterday

From The New York Times, CNN, The Washington Post and 2 more

Xiaomi pledges 60 billion yuan to AI over three years

Xiaomi CEO Lei Jun announced on Thursday that the company will invest at least 60 billion yuan, or roughly $8.7 billion, in artificial intelligence over the next three years.

Why it mattersThe push supports new models designed to offer stronger learning capabilities and more affordable developer services.

Which primarily Chinese company will own the highest-ranked model on Arena.ai's Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard at the end of October? Xiaomi leadsUnlikely35%

From Yahoo Finance, Caixinglobal

Anthropic launched Claude Sonnet 5.5 as its second Claude 5.5 model

Anthropic announced Claude Sonnet 5.5 on September 28, keeping per-token prices unchanged from Sonnet 5 while scoring 70.6% on the Terminal-Bench 4.0 coding test, compared with 10.3% for Sonnet 5 and 66.4% for Opus 5.5.

Why it mattersUsers get faster results and up to 30% lower costs per task for routine work.

Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026? Anthropic leadsVery likely83%▲ from 66% a week ago

From CNBC, Digitaltrends, Anthropic and 1 more