Decided This Week
Questions whose answers land in the next two weeks, soonest first, and what forecasting markets expect going in.
Tuesday, September 29
Wednesday, September 30
Next senior-level United States-Iran diplomatic meeting by Sept 30Very unlikely9%▼ from 50% yesterday
Russia capture any territory of Mykolaivka, Donetsk Oblast by September 30Likely74%▲ from 5% yesterday
What decision will Colombia's central bank make in September?No change72% ▲1050+ bps increase13%25 bps increase12%
Benjamin Netanyahu arrested before October 1, 2026Very unlikely5%
Pakistan takes military action against Afghanistan by September 30Very unlikely19%▲ from 12% yesterday
Houthis strike or seize a commercial ship by September 30Very unlikely20%▼ from 51% a week ago
What will the year-over-year U.S. core PCE inflation rate be in August 2026?3.3% best guess
Thursday, October 1
Friday, October 2
Sunday, October 4
Who will win Brazil's presidential election?Flávio Bolsonaro60%Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva40%Renan Santos<1%
Which party will win Brazil's Chamber of Deputies election?PL62% ▼6UPB38%FE Brasil<1%
What share of the vote will Renan Santos receive in the first round of Brazil's presidential election?3% best guess−2% since yesterday
Who will be the next Serb member of Bosnia and Herzegovina's Presidency?Željka Cvijanović93% ▲6Nebojša Vukanović4%Siniša Karan2%
Who will place first in the Federal District Senate election?Michelle Bolsonaro92%Leila do Vôlei5%Bia Kicis3%
Monday, October 5
Wednesday, October 7
Friday, October 9
Saturday, October 10
Outlook: what forecasting markets expect right now. How this works