Storyline

Iran

Escalating tensions, military conflict, and nuclear negotiations between the United States, Israel, and Iran.

The big questions

United States launches a military offensive to establish control over any part of Iran by December 31, 2026Very unlikely14% United States and Iran reach a final nuclear deal by Dec 31, 2027Very unlikely14% Israel-Iran ceasefire continues through Dec 31Likely68% Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by Dec 31, 2028Likely71% Iran’s current ruling regime ceases to govern by December 31, 2026Very unlikely6% Iran agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by Dec 31, 2027Very unlikely6%

New · Iran

US and Iran hold separate talks with mediators to end war

United States and Iranian officials spoke separately with mediators on Sept. 28 to try to end seven months of war. A U.S. official said Donald Trump was open to sanctions relief for nuclear progress, though Trump denied offering anything.

Why it mattersRenewed mediated talks give families hope that seven months of fighting might finally end.

The outlook

United States agrees to, signs or accepts a new Iran-US nuclear deal by Feb 28, 2027

26% Unlikely

↑ 13 points since yesterday · previously 13%

As of Sep 29, 12:35 PM ET · what forecasting markets expect, not a guarantee. How this works

From CNN, AP, CBS News and 4 more

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Iran awaits United States response relayed through Qatari mediators

Iranian state media reported the delegation has no plans for new negotiations with the United States in New York.

Why it mattersOrdinary people could see essential shipping lanes reopen if both nations agree to lift blockades and ease sanctions.

In which country will the next direct or indirect senior-level US-Iran diplomatic meeting begin by December 31, 2026? No Meeting by December 31 leadsUnlikely34%

From Reuters, CBS News, Al Jazeera and 12 more

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