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The Likely

The news, and what's likely next.

Track record

How often does "likely" happen?

We tested the Likely Scale on 5,898 questions that forecasting markets settled between Oct 1, 2025 and Sep 27, 2026. For each one we took the outlook a week before the question's deadline and checked what actually happened.

The scale, tested

The shaded band is what each word promises. The dot is how often those things actually happened.

Long shot under 5%
1% happened3,472 questions
Very unlikely 5–20%
13% happened852 questions
Unlikely 20–40%
34% happened424 questions
Toss-up 40–60%
41% happened248 questions
Likely 60–80%
63% happened289 questions
Very likely 80–95%
80% happened285 questions
Almost certain 95% or more
97% happened328 questions
  • Long shots almost never happen, but not never. Things rated a long shot happened about 1 in 125 times.
  • "Very unlikely" is not "won't." Those things happened about 1 in 8 times, a little more often than the odds said.
  • The favorites were a little too confident. "Likely" things happened 63% of the time and "very likely" things 80%, a few points below what those words promise.
  • "Almost certain" held up. Those things happened 97% of the time.

Long shots that came true

The chance a week before it happened, and the day it did.

  1. Will the US and Iran reach a permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

    Very unlikely · 8% a week before · came true Jun 15, 2026

  2. Will Khamenei leave his position as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

    Very unlikely · 5% a week before · came true Feb 28, 2026

  3. Will Netflix acquire Warner Bros. Discovery?

    Very unlikely · 13% a week before · came true Dec 5, 2025

  4. Will China and the Philippines have a military clash before 2027?

    Very unlikely · 10% a week before · came true Jul 20, 2026

  5. Will Joe Biden be named in newly released Epstein files?

    Very unlikely · 7% a week before · came true Dec 23, 2025

  6. Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?

    Very unlikely · 12% a week before · came true Jul 13, 2026

  7. Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

    Very unlikely · 10% a week before · came true Jun 18, 2026

  8. Will Donald Trump and Nicolás Maduro meet before Dec 1, 2025?

    Very unlikely · 12% a week before · came true Nov 28, 2025

  9. Will Trump announce a halt to arms sales to Taiwan?

    Very unlikely · 9% a week before · came true May 22, 2026

  10. Will Tesla launch unsupervised full self-driving for the public before Feb 2026?

    Very unlikely · 5% a week before · came true Jan 22, 2026

  11. Will the US strike Nigeria by December 31?

    Long shot · 2% a week before · came true Dec 25, 2025

  12. Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?

    Long shot · <1% a week before · came true Oct 10, 2025

Sure things that didn't happen

The chance a week before it was settled the other way.

  1. Will the US ceasefire with Iran continue through August 31?

    Very likely · 90% a week before · didn't happen (Aug 30, 2026)

  2. Will Jerome Powell leave as Fed Chair by May 16 2026?

    Very likely · 88% a week before · didn't happen (May 15, 2026)

  3. Will Israel strike one country in November 2025?

    Very likely · 86% a week before · didn't happen (Nov 28, 2025)

  4. Will Trump make no endorsement for NYC Mayor?

    Very likely · 92% a week before · didn't happen (Nov 3, 2025)

  5. Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?

    Very likely · 85% a week before · didn't happen (Oct 30, 2025)

  6. Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?

    Almost certain · 96% a week before · didn't happen (Aug 11, 2026)

How we measured

We used every yes-or-no question on Kalshi and Polymarket that settled between Oct 1, 2025 and Sep 27, 2026 with at least $100,000 traded on Polymarket or 100,000 contracts on Kalshi: 10,292 in all, across politics, the world, the economy, tech, culture and weather. We left out sports and short-term price bets, like where Bitcoin closes today. 5,898 of them were still open a week before their deadline, and those are the ones tested above.

We read each outlook a week before the question's scheduled deadline, not a week before the answer came in. Measuring from the answer makes long shots look far likelier than they were: a question that came true early gets scored while there was still plenty of time left.

Many questions move together (several about the same war, or every rung of one ladder), so the results are less certain than the raw counts suggest. The thin lines show a rough range for each word.

These are the forecasting markets' outlooks, which are what The Likely shows. We record every outlook we publish, and our own record will be added here as those questions are settled.