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The Likely

The news, and what's likely next.

The Midterms · The big questions

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

One of the biggest open questions on The Midterms, updated every morning · How outlooks work

Who leads

Democratic Party 62%

Then Republican Party (38%)

As of Sep 29, 6:30 PM ET · what forecasting markets expect, not a guarantee. How this works

The last six weeks

Democratic Party: 52% on Aug 16 · 62% now

More big questions on The Midterms

Which party will win the U.S. House?Democratic Party92%Republican Party8% Which parties will control the House and Senate after the 2026 midterms?Democrats Sweep62% ▼4R Senate, D House30%Republicans Sweep8% How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the midterms?52 best guess+1 since yesterday