Friday, October 2, 2026Track recordHow this worksGet the morning email

The Likely

The news, and what's likely next.

The big questions

When will the Danube River return to normal levels?

The outlook

Danube River return to normal levels by Nov 1

77% Likely

↑ 39 points in the past week · previously 38%

As of Oct 2, 7:02 AM ET · what forecasting markets expect, not a guarantee. How this works

The last six weeks

17% on Aug 18 · 77% now