The big questions
Will the U.S. government or military confirm possession of any Iranian-controlled enriched uranium by December 31, 2026?
The outlook
U.S. government or military confirms possession of any Iranian-controlled enriched uranium by December 31, 2026
6% Very unlikely
As of Oct 2, 7:02 AM ET · what forecasting markets expect, not a guarantee. How this works
The last six weeks
6% on Aug 18 · 6% now
More big questions
Who will win the 2028 presidential election?JD Vance21%Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%Jon Ossoff11%
Who will be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028?Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez18%Gavin Newsom16%Jon Ossoff15%
Who will be the Republican presidential nominee in 2028?J.D. Vance50%Marco Rubio15%Tucker Carlson3%
Who will win the next French presidential election?Marine Le Pen45% ▲7Édouard Philippe20%Jean-Luc Mélenchon12%
Which party will win the U.S. House?Democratic Party92%Republican Party9%
Which parties will control the House and Senate after the 2026 midterms?Democrats Sweep64%R Senate, D House30%Republicans Sweep8%