The big questions
Will China launch a military offensive to establish control over any part of Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
The outlook
China launches a military offensive to establish control over any part of Taiwan by December 31, 2027
12% Very unlikely
As of Sep 29, 6:30 PM ET · what forecasting markets expect, not a guarantee. How this works
The last six weeks
12% on Aug 16 · 12% now
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