The big questions
Will California voters approve a proposition imposing a one-time tax on billionaires in the 2026 election?
The outlook
California voters approve a proposition imposing a one-time tax on billionaires in the 2026 election
28% Unlikely
As of Sep 29, 6:30 PM ET · what forecasting markets expect, not a guarantee. How this works
The last six weeks
30% on Aug 16 · 28% now
More big questions
Who will win the 2028 presidential election?JD Vance21%Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%Jon Ossoff12%
Who will be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028?Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez18%Gavin Newsom17%Jon Ossoff16%
Who will be the Republican presidential nominee in 2028?J.D. Vance51%Marco Rubio15%Tucker Carlson3%
Who will win the next French presidential election?Marine Le Pen43% ▲5Édouard Philippe18%Jean-Luc Mélenchon14%
Which party will win the U.S. House?Democratic Party92%Republican Party8%
Which parties will control the House and Senate after the 2026 midterms?Democrats Sweep62% ▼4R Senate, D House30%Republicans Sweep8%