Tuesday, September 29, 2026Track recordHow this worksGet the morning email

The Likely

The news, and what's likely next.

The big questions

When will Putin leave office as Russia’s president?

The outlook

Putin leaves office as Russia’s president by Jun 30, 2027

12% Very unlikely

As of Sep 29, 6:30 PM ET · what forecasting markets expect, not a guarantee. How this works

The last six weeks

12% on Aug 15 · 12% now