The big questions
By what date will a U.S.-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Cuban soil be announced or credibly reported?
The outlook
U.S.-initiated drone, missile or air strike on Cuban soil announced or credibly reported by Jan 1, 2027
14% Very unlikely
As of Sep 29, 6:30 PM ET · what forecasting markets expect, not a guarantee. How this works
The last six weeks
18% on Aug 16 · 14% now
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