Tuesday, September 29, 2026Track recordHow this worksGet the morning email

The Likely

The news, and what's likely next.

Decided This Week

Will Russia capture any territory of Mykolaivka, Donetsk Oblast, by September 30?

Decided Wednesday, September 30, updated every morning · How outlooks work

The outlook

Russia capture any territory of Mykolaivka, Donetsk Oblast by September 30

74% Likely

↑ 69 points since yesterday · previously 5%

As of Sep 29, 6:30 PM ET · what forecasting markets expect, not a guarantee. How this works

The last six weeks

49% on Aug 15 · 74% now

Also decided soon

What will the average price of gas in the United States be in September 2026?$4.43 best guess−$0.02 since yesterday Next senior-level United States-Iran diplomatic meeting by Sept 30Very unlikely9%▼ from 50% yesterday What decision will Colombia's central bank make in September?No change72% ▲1050+ bps increase13%25 bps increase12% Benjamin Netanyahu arrested before October 1, 2026Very unlikely5% Pakistan takes military action against Afghanistan by September 30Very unlikely19%▲ from 12% yesterday Houthis strike or seize a commercial ship by September 30Very unlikely20%▼ from 51% a week ago