Will the Houthis strike or seize a commercial ship by September 30?
The outlook
Houthis strike or seize a commercial ship by September 30
20% Very unlikely
↓ 31 points in the past week · previously 51%
As of Sep 29, 6:30 PM ET · what forecasting markets expect, not a guarantee. How this works
The last six weeks
39% on Sep 17 · 20% now
Also decided soon
What will the average price of gas in the United States be in September 2026?$4.43 best guess−$0.02 since yesterday
Next senior-level United States-Iran diplomatic meeting by Sept 30Very unlikely9%▼ from 50% yesterday
Russia capture any territory of Mykolaivka, Donetsk Oblast by September 30Likely74%▲ from 5% yesterday
What decision will Colombia's central bank make in September?No change72% ▲1050+ bps increase13%25 bps increase12%
Benjamin Netanyahu arrested before October 1, 2026Very unlikely5%
Pakistan takes military action against Afghanistan by September 30Very unlikely19%▲ from 12% yesterday