Will Pakistan take military action against Afghanistan by September 30 at 11:59 PM Afghanistan Time?
The outlook
Pakistan takes military action against Afghanistan by September 30
19% Very unlikely
↑ 7 points since yesterday · previously 12%
As of Sep 29, 6:30 PM ET · what forecasting markets expect, not a guarantee. How this works
The last six weeks
30% on Sep 26 · 19% now
Also decided soon
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Next senior-level United States-Iran diplomatic meeting by Sept 30Very unlikely9%▼ from 50% yesterday
Russia capture any territory of Mykolaivka, Donetsk Oblast by September 30Likely74%▲ from 5% yesterday
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Benjamin Netanyahu arrested before October 1, 2026Very unlikely5%
Houthis strike or seize a commercial ship by September 30Very unlikely20%▼ from 51% a week ago