Will the US-Iran ceasefire continue through October 7?
The outlook
US-Iran ceasefire continuing through October 7
90% Very likely
As of Sep 30, 7:04 AM ET · what forecasting markets expect, not a guarantee. How this works
The last six weeks
84% on Sep 30 · 90% now
Also decided soon
Iran charging fees for Strait of Hormuz passage by Sept 30Very unlikely6%
Google Gemini 4.0 public availability by Sept 30Unlikely31%▲ from 1% yesterday
Iran military action against an Arab country by September 30Very unlikely11%▼ from 22% yesterday
Russia capture any territory of Mykolaivka, Donetsk Oblast by September 30Unlikely30%▼ from 76% yesterday
What decision will Colombia's central bank make in September?No change64% ▼1425 bps increase24%50+ bps increase10%
Benjamin Netanyahu arrested before October 1, 2026Very unlikely5%