Will Iran target an Arab country with military action by September 30?
The outlook
Iran military action against an Arab country by September 30
11% Very unlikely
↓ 11 points since yesterday · previously 22%
As of Sep 30, 7:04 AM ET · what forecasting markets expect, not a guarantee. How this works
The last six weeks
69% on Sep 10 · 11% now
Also decided soon
Iran charging fees for Strait of Hormuz passage by Sept 30Very unlikely6%
Google Gemini 4.0 public availability by Sept 30Unlikely31%▲ from 1% yesterday
Russia capture any territory of Mykolaivka, Donetsk Oblast by September 30Unlikely30%▼ from 76% yesterday
What decision will Colombia's central bank make in September?No change64% ▼1425 bps increase24%50+ bps increase10%
Benjamin Netanyahu arrested before October 1, 2026Very unlikely5%
OpenAI personal AI agent with user memory and multi-step tasks across third-party apps by Sept 30Likely62%▼ from 82% yesterday