When will Google make Gemini 4.0 available to the public?
The outlook
Google Gemini 4.0 public availability by Sept 30
31% Unlikely
↑ 30 points since yesterday · previously 1%
As of Sep 30, 7:04 AM ET · what forecasting markets expect, not a guarantee. How this works
The last six weeks
18% on Aug 16 · 31% now
Also decided soon
Iran charging fees for Strait of Hormuz passage by Sept 30Very unlikely6%
Iran military action against an Arab country by September 30Very unlikely11%▼ from 22% yesterday
Russia capture any territory of Mykolaivka, Donetsk Oblast by September 30Unlikely30%▼ from 76% yesterday
What decision will Colombia's central bank make in September?No change64% ▼1425 bps increase24%50+ bps increase10%
Benjamin Netanyahu arrested before October 1, 2026Very unlikely5%
OpenAI personal AI agent with user memory and multi-step tasks across third-party apps by Sept 30Likely62%▼ from 82% yesterday