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The Likely

The news, and what's likely next.

Brazil's Election

Real Time Big Data poll puts Renan Filho ahead in simulated runoff

Alagoas governor contender Renan Filho led João Henrique Holanda Caldas 47% to 43% in a simulated runoff polled by Real Time Big Data through September 14.

Why it mattersA tight governor race could force a second-round runoff to decide the state's leadership.

How we got here

  1. AtlasIntel began fieldwork for its Alagoas governor poll, interviewing voters through September 9. Br
  2. Real Time Big Data began fieldwork for its poll, interviewing 1,600 Alagoas voters through September 14. Br
  3. The election campaign period ended. As Coa
  4. Brazil scheduled its first-round election. Br

What's likely next

  1. The official campaign period ends.
  2. A runoff for governor is scheduled if no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes in the first round.

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