Storyline
Brazil's Election
Campaign developments, candidate polling, and political debates ahead of Brazil's presidential vote.
New · Brazil's Election
On September 28, campaign coordinator Edinho Silva signaled that Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva may skip the October 1 TV Globo debate unless the format allows direct confrontation with Flávio Bolsonaro, though no final decision was made.
Why it mattersLula's absence would deny voters a direct national clash between the leading candidates before the first-round vote.
The outlook
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva participates in a televised Brazilian presidential debate by October 3, 2026
16% Very unlikely
↓ 50 points since yesterday · previously 66%
As of Sep 29, 12:37 PM ET · what forecasting markets expect, not a guarantee. How this works
From Globo, BNamericas, Valor International
The full story: how we got here, what's likely next, all coverage →
A Quaest poll published on Sept 28 placed Renan Santos at 3% in Brazil's presidential first-round race. Lula led with 39% and Flávio Bolsonaro followed with 34%.
Why it mattersA candidate must win over half of valid votes to avoid a second-round runoff.
From Al Jazeera, Reuters, Globo and 3 more
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A Quaest poll published September 23 showed Michelle Bolsonaro leading the Federal District Senate race with 26 percent, followed by Leila do Vôlei at 19 percent, while Bia Kicis and Erika Kokay tied at 15 percent each.
Why it mattersVoters will decide which two leaders earn eight-year Senate terms to shape regional laws on election day.
Who will receive the second-most valid votes in the Federal District Senate election? Bia Kicis leadsLikely66%
From Globo, Br
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