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The Likely

The news, and what's likely next.

AI · The big questions

When will the AI bubble burst?

The outlook

AI bubble bursts by Jun 30, 2027

17% Very unlikely

↓ 3 points in the past week · previously 20%

As of Sep 29, 6:30 PM ET · what forecasting markets expect, not a guarantee. How this works

The last six weeks

20% on Sep 23 · 17% now