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The Likely

The news, and what's likely next.

Elections Abroad

Spain's Congress rejects Pedro Sánchez's emergency housing decrees

Spain's Congress of Deputies rejected two emergency housing decrees on October 2. The first failed 178 to 172 and the second 184 to 166, after Junts per Catalunya, the Popular Party, and Vox opposed the measures.

Why it mattersThe defeat leaves emergency tenant protections and eviction bans unapproved, raising the prospect of an early general election.

How we got here

  1. Eighty-seven-year-old Maricarmen Abascal was evicted from her Madrid apartment, sparking housing protests. NPR
  2. Tens of thousands marched in Madrid, and protesters camped overnight in Puerta del Sol. NPR
  3. The Spanish government approved two emergency housing decrees and sought parliamentary approval to ratify them. The Guardian, Es
  4. Junts announced its opposition to both housing decrees, jeopardizing their passage as early-election scenarios were considered. Catalannews, Euronews

What's likely next

  1. Junts said it planned to send the government its own housing-decree proposal; the cited report did not give a submission date.
  2. Pedro Sánchez ceases to be Spain’s prime ministerUnlikely35%▲ from 12% a week ago
  3. Spain calls a snap electionToss-up55%
  4. Spain calls a snap electionLikely64%

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