Tuesday, September 29, 2026Get the morning email

The Likely

The news, and what's likely next.

World

US and Iran hold separate talks with mediators to end war

United States and Iranian officials spoke separately with mediators on Sept. 28 to try to end seven months of war. A U.S. official said Donald Trump was open to sanctions relief for nuclear progress, though Trump denied offering anything.

Why it mattersRenewed mediated talks give families hope that seven months of fighting might finally end.

United States agrees to, signs, or accepts a new Iran-US nuclear deal by Feb 28, 2027Unlikely26%▲ from 13% yesterday

How we got here

  1. The United States and Iran held shuttle talks without either side spelling out a change in position. Whbl
  2. Trump rejected an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the fighting. Usnews, Reuters

What's likely next

  1. Iran was waiting for mediators to convey Washington's definitive views; Araghchi said Tehran would decide its next steps based on that response.
  2. United States agrees to, signs, or accepts a new Iran-US nuclear dealVery unlikely15%
  3. United States agrees to, signs, or accepts a new Iran-US nuclear dealUnlikely26%▲ from 13% yesterday
  4. United States agrees to, signs, or accepts a new Iran-US nuclear dealUnlikely38%

All coverage

Something wrong or missing? Tell us.

More in World