Iran · The big questions
When will the United States and Iran reach a final nuclear deal?
The outlook
United States and Iran reach a final nuclear deal by Dec 31, 2027
14% Very unlikely
As of Sep 29, 5:15 PM ET · what forecasting markets expect, not a guarantee. How this works
The last six weeks
18% on Aug 15 · 14% now
Stories about this
New · US and Iran hold separate talks with mediators to end war
United States agrees to, signs or accepts a new Iran-US nuclear deal by Feb 28, 2027: Unlikely (26%) ▲ from 13%
More big questions on Iran
United States launches a military offensive to establish control over any part of Iran by December 31, 2026Very unlikely14%
Israel-Iran ceasefire continues through Dec 31Likely68%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by Dec 31, 2028Likely71%
Iran’s current ruling regime ceases to govern by December 31, 2026Very unlikely6%
Iran agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by Dec 31, 2027Very unlikely6%