Iran · The big questions
How long will the Israel-Iran ceasefire continue?
The outlook
Israel-Iran ceasefire continues through Dec 31
68% Likely
As of Sep 29, 6:30 PM ET · what forecasting markets expect, not a guarantee. How this works
The last six weeks
62% on Aug 16 · 68% now
More big questions on Iran
United States launches a military offensive to establish control over any part of Iran by December 31, 2026Very unlikely14%
United States and Iran reach a final nuclear deal by Dec 31, 2027Very unlikely14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by Dec 31, 2028Likely71%
Iran’s current ruling regime ceases to govern by December 31, 2026Very unlikely6%
Iran agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by Dec 31, 2027Very unlikely6%