Sunday, October 4, 2026Track recordHow this worksGet the morning briefing

The Likely

The news, and what's likely next.

Brazil's Election

CNT/MDA poll shows Lula lead over Flávio Bolsonaro narrows

By The Likely · Updated Oct 4, 6:59 AM ET · Drawn from 9 sources · Written by AI, checked against sources

A candidate needs over 50% of valid votes to avoid a runoff. On Oct 3, late polls placed Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 43.1% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 38%.

Why it mattersA close contest increases the likelihood of a runoff that extends political uncertainty for Brazilians.

How we got here

  1. Fieldwork began for a final pre-election survey and continued through the following days. Br
  2. A poll showed Lula leading Flávio Bolsonaro in both total vote intentions and valid votes. Br
  3. A survey showed Lula's first-round lead over Flávio Bolsonaro narrowed. It
  4. Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro wrapped up their campaigns with events in São Paulo state and elsewhere. Usnews
  5. Voting hours were scheduled from morning until late afternoon for Brazil's first-round election. Br
  6. The official campaign period for a presidential runoff is scheduled to begin if a runoff is needed. As Coa
  7. The official runoff campaign period was scheduled to conclude. As Coa

What's likely next

  1. First-round voting is scheduled from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. Brasília time.
  2. Scheduled date for a presidential runoff, if no candidate wins more than half of valid votes in the first round.

All coverage

The coverage

Analysis & opinion

Something wrong or missing? Tell us.

More on Brazil's Election