Hurricanes · The big questions

Will a hurricane with winds of at least 74 mph make landfall in Hawaii during the 2026 hurricane season?

One of the biggest open questions on Hurricanes, updated every morning · How outlooks work

The outlook

Hurricane with winds of at least 74 mph makes landfall in Hawaii during the 2026 hurricane season

6% Very unlikely

↓ 4 points since yesterday · previously 10%

As of Sep 29, 5:15 PM ET · what forecasting markets expect, not a guarantee. How this works

The last six weeks

10% on Aug 16 · 6% now