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Hurricanes

Tropical storm activity, forecasts, and landfall risks across the Atlantic and Pacific.

The big questions

How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?0 best guess How many hurricanes will form during the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?0 best guess−2 since yesterday Where will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?Florida30% ▼18Louisiana14%Texas12% Hurricane with winds of at least 74 mph makes landfall in Hawaii during the 2026 hurricane season Very unlikely6%▼ from 10% yesterday Hurricane of Category 1 strength or higher makes landfall in Hawaii before 2027Very unlikely12% What category will Hurricane Nolo reach?4.5 best guess

New · Hurricanes

Hurricane Nolo weakens to 110 mph west-southwest of Lihue

Hurricane Nolo weakened to 110 mph winds on September 29 about 325 miles west-southwest of Lihue. Forecasters reported that strong upper-level winds and dry air were breaking apart the storm.

Why it mattersKauai and Niihau face possible flooding, mudslides, and dangerous surf as the storm stays offshore.

The outlook

What will be the peak intensity of Nolo? Category 4 leads

96% Almost certain

↑ 12 points since yesterday · previously 84%

As of Sep 29, 12:40 PM ET · what forecasting markets expect, not a guarantee. How this works

From Hawaii department of defense (.gov), NBC News, CBS News and 3 more

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Michael Lowry reports Eastern Pacific activity broke seasonal record to date

On Sept 28, Michael Lowry reported that the Eastern Pacific broke records for overall seasonal activity to date and Category 5 hours. Hurricane Polo approached Baja California Sur near major-hurricane strength.

Why it mattersA record-setting storm approaching near major-hurricane strength puts residents in Baja California Sur at risk.

From Local10, ABC7 San Francisco, ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos and 3 more

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Japan Meteorological Agency warned Typhoon Surigae could near Tokyo on Thursday

Typhoon Surigae could approach the Kanto region, including Tokyo, on Thursday, the Japan Meteorological Agency said on Sept 29. The agency warned that the storm's forecast path remains highly uncertain.

How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during calendar year 2026, according to the China Meteorological Administration? Greater than 8 leadsToss-up52%

From The New York Times, Jp, Cn

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