Hurricanes · The big questions
Will a hurricane of Category 1 strength or higher make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?
The outlook
Hurricane of Category 1 strength or higher makes landfall in Hawaii before 2027
12% Very unlikely
As of Sep 29, 5:15 PM ET · what forecasting markets expect, not a guarantee. How this works
The last six weeks
24% on Aug 16 · 12% now
More big questions on Hurricanes
How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?0 best guess
How many hurricanes will form during the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?0 best guess−2 since yesterday
Where will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?Florida30% ▼18Louisiana14%Texas12%
Hurricane with winds of at least 74 mph makes landfall in Hawaii during the 2026 hurricane season Very unlikely6%▼ from 10% yesterday
What category will Hurricane Nolo reach?4.5 best guess