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The Likely

The news, and what's likely next.

The Midterms · The big questions

Which party will control the House and Senate after the 2026 midterms?

One of the biggest open questions on The Midterms, updated every morning · How outlooks work

Who leads

Democrats sweep 62%

Then D-House, R-Senate (30%), Republicans sweep (8%)

As of Oct 3, 7:06 AM ET · what forecasting markets expect, not a guarantee. How this works

The last six weeks

Democrats sweep: 47% on Aug 20 · 62% now

More big questions on The Midterms

Which party will win the U.S. House?Democratic Party92%Republican Party8% Which party will win the Senate in 2026?Democratic Party64%Republican Party36% How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the midterms?51 best guess Who will win the Texas Senate election?James Talarico64%Ken Paxton36%