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The Fed

Federal Reserve monetary policy, interest rate projections, and economic signaling on inflation.

The big questions

What will the Fed decide on interest rates in October?25 bps increase66% ▲14No change34%50+ bps increase1% How many rate cuts will there be in 2026?0 best guess

New · The Fed

Michael Barr says more policy adjustments likely needed as business activity accelerates

On September 23, Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr stated further policy adjustments would likely be needed to bring inflation down, as S&P Global reported U.S. business activity grew at its fastest pace since July 2021 alongside accelerating input-cost inflation.

Why it mattersRising costs and potential interest rate adjustments could increase expenses for consumers and businesses.

The outlook

Fed decision in Oct 2026? Hike 25bps leads

66% Likely

As of Sep 29, 12:37 PM ET · what forecasting markets expect, not a guarantee. How this works

From WSJ, Reuters, The New York Times and 3 more

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Treasury yields edged higher on Sept 28 amid elevated oil prices

U.S. Treasury yields edged higher on Sept 28 amid elevated oil prices and inflation concerns, with the 10-year yield reaching 5.234%. Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr stated on Sept 23 that further policy adjustments will likely be needed to lower inflation.

Why it mattersRising yields push borrowing costs higher for consumers and businesses.

From CNN, CNBC, Gov and 1 more

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John Williams calls year-end rate hike a reasonable expectation

New York Fed President John Williams said on September 24 that another rate hike before year-end is a reasonable expectation. The Federal Open Market Committee had raised rates on September 16 to 3.75%–4%, its first hike since July 2023.

Why it mattersAdditional rate hikes can make borrowing more expensive for consumers.

What decisions will the Federal Open Market Committee make at its September 15–16, October 27–28, and December 8–9, 2026 meetings? Hike–Hike–Hike leadsToss-up47%▲ from 28% a week ago

From CNBC, The New York Times, Reuters and 2 more

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Six words from Kevin Warsh change questions on interest rate heights

New York Fed official John Williams said on Sept 24 that expecting another rate hike by year-end is reasonable.

From CNBC, The New York Times, Reuters and 4 more

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Gold drops to August low as yields and dollar climb

Gold closed at US$4,127 an ounce on September 28, its lowest point since August 4. Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook warned that higher oil prices and artificial intelligence spending will continue to fuel inflation.

Annual Return: DXY vs. Gold U.S. Dollar Index leadsToss-up50%

From Riotimesonline, Gov, Forex and 3 more

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