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The Likely

The news, and what's likely next.

Economy

Trump rejected an Iran truce proposal, pushing crude oil prices higher

Oil rose on September 28, with Brent near $106 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate above $93, after President Donald Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Why it mattersRising oil prices threaten to add further upward pressure on consumer prices and overall inflation.

How we got here

  1. The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a 3.75%–4% target range. CNBC
  2. Barr stated that further policy adjustments were likely needed, while S&P Global recorded its highest overall inflation measure since October 2022. CNBC
  3. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.23 percent, hitting its highest level since 2007. CNBC
  4. Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran refused to soften its conditions. Bloomberg
  5. Trump stated that he expected negotiations to resume within the week. Bloomberg
  6. The Bureau of Labor Statistics scheduled the publication of the September Employment Situation report. Gov
  7. The Bureau of Labor Statistics scheduled the release of the September 2026 Consumer Price Index. Gov

What's likely next

  1. The Treasury’s tentative auction schedule listed a five-year note auction.
  2. The BLS scheduled the September Employment Situation release for 8:30 a.m. ET.
  3. The BLS scheduled the September CPI release for 8:30 a.m. ET.

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