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The Likely

The news, and what's likely next.

Economy

Williams calls another rate hike by year-end a reasonable expectation

On Sept 24, John Williams called another rate hike by year-end a reasonable expectation while stressing officials will watch incoming data. A day earlier, Michael Barr said further policy adjustments are likely needed, and Susan Collins warned of persistent inflation risks.

Why it mattersMichael Barr believes central bank changes are needed, meaning people could soon see borrowing become more expensive.

Will the Federal Reserve raise rates by 25 basis points on March 17, 2027? Hike 25bps leadsToss-up56%▲ from 22% a week ago

How we got here

  1. Barr stated at a housing summit that further policy adjustments were likely needed in his base case. Gov
  2. Susan Collins stated she saw an increased likelihood that inflation would remain notably above two percent. CNBC
  3. Williams called another rate hike by year-end a reasonable expectation while noting officials would assess incoming data. CNBC, Cmegroup
  4. Treasury yields reached multidecade highs, including a two-year yield of 4.941 percent and a ten-year yield of 5.223 percent. CNBC
  5. The Federal Reserve scheduled the release of minutes from the September FOMC meeting. Gov
  6. The next scheduled two-day FOMC meeting was set to begin; it was scheduled to conclude October 28. Gov

What's likely next

  1. October 7, 2026: The Fed’s calendar scheduled release of minutes from the September 15–16 meeting.

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