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The Likely

The news, and what's likely next.

Politics

Congress, the White House and the courts, and the races for the House, the Senate, governor and 2028.

Politics

Thom Tillis urges Trump to replace Pete Hegseth at Pentagon

Republican Senator Thom Tillis publicly urged President Donald Trump to replace Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth with a new leader at the Pentagon.

Why it mattersReports describe Hegseth firing or forcing out senior officers across nearly every service, with at least 25 civilian or military leaders leaving under his tenure.

Hegseth out as defense secretary by Nov 30Very unlikely20%▼ from 32% a week ago

Trump calls it too early to endorse JD Vance for 2028

Speaking to reporters in Shannon, Ireland, on September 14, Trump said it was too early to endorse JD Vance for 2028, pointing to a deep bench of potential contenders.

Why it mattersEarly succession talks focus on Vance and Marco Rubio, whom Trump has previously floated without formally endorsing either.

Who will Donald Trump endorse in the 2028 presidential election? J.D. Vance leadsToss-up47%

Rasmussen generic ballot shows Democrats leading 48% to 43%

Rasmussen Reports published survey data on September 28 showing Democrats leading Republicans 48% to 43% among likely voters. That margin fell from an eight-point lead in its prior week's release.

Why it mattersRecent surveys show varying Democratic advantages across different voter pools, ranging from five to 14 points.

Democrats leading the generic ballot Very unlikely16%▼ from 57% yesterday

Poll shows Nithya Raman leading Karen Bass in Los Angeles mayoral race

California, Los Angeles Mayor: A Berkeley IGS/Los Angeles Times poll released September 23 showed challenger Nithya Raman leading incumbent Karen Bass 39% to 28%. A third of likely voters remain undecided.

Why it mattersBass faces severe fallout over city management, with 56% of voters giving her poor marks for the Palisades Fire response.

Who will win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Nithya Raman leadsToss-up57%

Analysis & opinion

Trump weighs contenders to replace Leavitt as White House press secretary

President Donald Trump has not named a permanent successor or set a selection timeline following Karoline Leavitt's August 27 exit. Vice President JD Vance led the White House press briefing on September 3.

Why it mattersThe vacancy leaves the administration without its primary daily voice to defend policy and field questions from the briefing room.

Trump announcing a new White House press secretary by Oct 14Unlikely30%▲ from 18% yesterday
4%14%30%

Newsom says he expects Ocasio-Cortez to run for president in 2028

Gavin Newsom said he fully expects Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to run for president in 2028 and that she could win the nomination, according to an interview published September 24. Newsom added that he has not decided whether he will run.

Why it mattersOcasio-Cortez has stated that her 2028 decisions will not come down to deference to other candidates as potential contenders weigh their options.

Who will be the Democratic presidential and vice-presidential nominees in 2028? Gavin Newsom and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leadsVery unlikely8%

Analysis & opinion

DEA makes public transcript from marijuana rescheduling hearing

The DEA published the 2,533-page transcript from its 11-day rescheduling hearing on August 25, 2026. Reporting indicated that the DEA and participating parties had filed final briefs by August 18.

Why it mattersBroader reclassification would extend Section 280E tax relief beyond FDA-approved and state-licensed medical products to the wider cannabis sector.

Will marijuana be rescheduled before 2027? Before Jan 20, 2029:Very likely88%

Collins leads Jackson in Maine Senate survey from Portland Press Herald and Siena

A New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena poll reported September 24 showed Republican Susan Collins leading Democrat Troy Jackson 49% to 46%. It marked Collins's first independent survey lead since Jackson became the nominee.

Why it mattersCollins's three-point lead remains within the poll's 4.9-point margin of error, while other contemporaneous surveys show Jackson leading or the race tied.

Who will win the 2026 Maine Senate election? Troy Jackson leadsLikely60%

Analysis & opinion

Texas Senate poll shows Talarico leading Paxton among likely voters

In the Texas Senate race, a new BIG DATA POLL released September 27 found James Talarico leading Ken Paxton 44.6% to 41.6% among likely voters.

Why it mattersTalarico holds a narrow edge despite conservative super PACs deploying $98.5 million to counter his early campaign spending advantage.

Analysis & opinion

Senate vote on CLARITY Act fails 49 to 50

The Senate failed to pass the CLARITY Act on September 23 in a 49 to 50 vote.

Why it mattersThe failed vote shifts the fight over crypto policy to regulators.

Which senators will vote for the Clarity Act? Raphael Warnock leadsVery unlikely12%

Analysis & opinion

Askar and Dandiya secure nominations in redrawn Florida 22nd District

Republican Casey Askar and Democrat Pia Dandiya won their respective primaries on August 18 for Florida's redrawn open seat.

Why it mattersThe Cook Political Report characterizes the cross-state district as highly competitive despite giving Askar the edge in a seat Trump carried by 11 points.

Who will win Florida’s 22nd Congressional District election? Pia Dandiya (D) leadsToss-up51%

Donald Trump pardons PGA Tour caddie Eric Larson over cocaine trafficking conviction

Donald Trump signed a presidential pardon on September 3, 2026, for PGA Tour caddie Eric Larson, who served nearly 11 years on a cocaine trafficking conviction.

Why it mattersLarson's criminal conviction had prevented him from working at golf tournaments in the United Kingdom, forcing him to miss The Open in 2025.

Who will Trump pardon before 2027? Donald Brodie leadsUnlikely30%▲ from 18% yesterday

María Elvira Salazar challenges Donald Trump on immigration in new campaign ad

Incumbent María Elvira Salazar launched a campaign ad on September 17 challenging Donald Trump on immigration enforcement. Democratic challenger Eliott Rodriguez responded that Salazar had voted for the policies she was criticizing.

Why it mattersForecasters have shifted the district from solid Republican to likely Republican, and the DCCC lists the Miami-Dade County seat among its Florida targets.

Who will win Florida’s 27th Congressional District in 2026? Maria Elvira Salazar leadsLikely65%

Analysis & opinion

Poll shows Amanda Janoo closing in on Phil Scott in Vermont governor's race

A poll reported by Vermont Public on September 28 showed Amanda Janoo closing in on Phil Scott in the Vermont governor's race.

Why it mattersThe narrowing contest puts Governor Phil Scott in his closest gubernatorial race in ten years.

Who will win the 2026 Vermont governor election? Phil Scott leadsVery likely84%▼ from 95% a week ago

Paul LePage agrees to two October debates in Maine's 2nd District

ME-02: Paul LePage announced he will face Democrat Matt Dunlap in two October televised debates, committing to the appearances on September 14.

Why it mattersThis open northern seat is a top Republican flip target in the 2026 midterms.

Who will win Maine’s 2nd Congressional District in 2026? Paul LePage leadsLikely66%▲ from 57% a week ago

Analysis & opinion

Kean and Bennett clash over Iran war and tariffs in sole debate

NJ-07 saw Republican incumbent Tom Kean Jr. and Democrat Rebecca Bennett face off on September 27 in their only scheduled debate. Cook carries the race as a toss-up, while Sabato's Crystal Ball leans Democratic.

Why it mattersNew Jersey's 7th Congressional District is a closely watched, competitive seat where 39% of likely voters view Kean as very unfavorable.

Who will win New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District election? Rebecca Bennett (D) leadsVery likely90%

The New York Times published latest polls for Arizona's 1st Congressional District

An Arizona congressional candidate was arrested on September 22 for alleged threats against a judge and an attorney's office. The New York Times reported on the district's latest polls on September 25.

Who will win Arizona’s 1st Congressional District election? Amish Shah (D) leadsLikely76%▲ from 70% a week ago

Mayor Mamdani launches Jobs NYC Center at 2 Lafayette Street

Mayor Zohran Mamdani announced the opening of the Jobs NYC Center on September 28 to connect New Yorkers to public-service careers. He marked the launch by swearing in 17 new NYC Business Express Service Team members.

Why it mattersMamdani remains strictly focused on municipal governance, leaving higher-office buzz to allies while facing a hard constitutional bar to national office.

Zohran Mamdani becoming president by Jan 22, 2045Very unlikely16%▲ from 10% yesterday

Real Time Big Data poll finds Mailza Assis and Alan Rick tied

A Real Time Big Data poll reported September 26 showed incumbent Governor Mailza Assis leading Acre's gubernatorial race but tied with Republicanos contender Alan Rick.

Why it mattersUnder Brazil's election rules, a candidate must secure more than 50 percent of first-round votes to avoid a runoff.

Who will win the Acre governor election? Mailza Assis leadsLikely68%

Morena names Ana Lilia Rivera its virtual gubernatorial candidate in Tlaxcala

Morena named senator on leave Ana Lilia Rivera its coordinator for the Defense of the Fourth Transformation and Sovereignty in Tlaxcala on September 28, 2026. Rivera became the virtual gubernatorial candidate following an internal survey, prompting rival Alfonso Sánchez García to leave.

Why it mattersRivera secures the nomination after losing the contest six years ago, cementing Morena's line of succession under sitting Governor Lorena Cuéllar.

Who will win the Tlaxcala governor election? Ana Lilia Rivera Rivera leadsToss-up60%

More outlooks

Questions we're following where the news is quieter today.

By what margin will Republicans win Arizona’s 8th Congressional District?

Unlikely28%

Republican 6-9% leads

  1. Republican 6-9%28%
  2. Republican 9-12%22%
  3. Republican 3-6%16%

Who will win Florida’s 26th Congressional District election?

Very likely86%

Mario Díaz-Balart (R) leads

  1. Mario Díaz-Balart (R)86%
  2. Nicole Locklin (D)14%

Who will finish second in the Federal District Senate election?

Very likely81%

Bia Kicis leads

  1. Bia Kicis81%
  2. Leila do Vôlei15%
  3. Erika Kokay2%

Who will finish first in the Rio Grande do Norte Senate election?

Very likely81%

Styvenson Valentim leads

  1. Styvenson Valentim81%
  2. Zenaide Maia18%
  3. Samanda de Lula1%

Who will be named in Epstein files released in 2026?

Toss-up46%

Bill Clinton

  1. Bill Clinton46%
  2. Prince Andrew44%
  3. Donald Trump42%

By when will the US and Canada reach a diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs?

Toss-up59%

by Dec 31

1%18%59%

Outlook: what forecasting markets expect right now. How this works