Republican Senator Thom Tillis publicly urged President Donald Trump to replace Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth with a new leader at the Pentagon.
Why it mattersReports describe Hegseth firing or forcing out senior officers across nearly every service, with at least 25 civilian or military leaders leaving under his tenure.
Hegseth out as defense secretary by Nov 30Very unlikely20%▼ from 32% a week ago
Speaking to reporters in Shannon, Ireland, on September 14, Trump said it was too early to endorse JD Vance for 2028, pointing to a deep bench of potential contenders.
Why it mattersEarly succession talks focus on Vance and Marco Rubio, whom Trump has previously floated without formally endorsing either.
Who will Donald Trump endorse in the 2028 presidential election? J.D. Vance leadsToss-up47%
Rasmussen Reports published survey data on September 28 showing Democrats leading Republicans 48% to 43% among likely voters. That margin fell from an eight-point lead in its prior week's release.
Why it mattersRecent surveys show varying Democratic advantages across different voter pools, ranging from five to 14 points.
Democrats leading the generic ballot Very unlikely16%▼ from 57% yesterday
California, Los Angeles Mayor: A Berkeley IGS/Los Angeles Times poll released September 23 showed challenger Nithya Raman leading incumbent Karen Bass 39% to 28%. A third of likely voters remain undecided.
Why it mattersBass faces severe fallout over city management, with 56% of voters giving her poor marks for the Palisades Fire response.
Who will win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Nithya Raman leadsToss-up57%
President Donald Trump has not named a permanent successor or set a selection timeline following Karoline Leavitt's August 27 exit. Vice President JD Vance led the White House press briefing on September 3.
Why it mattersThe vacancy leaves the administration without its primary daily voice to defend policy and field questions from the briefing room.
Trump announcing a new White House press secretary by Oct 14Unlikely30%▲ from 18% yesterday
Gavin Newsom said he fully expects Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to run for president in 2028 and that she could win the nomination, according to an interview published September 24. Newsom added that he has not decided whether he will run.
Why it mattersOcasio-Cortez has stated that her 2028 decisions will not come down to deference to other candidates as potential contenders weigh their options.
Who will be the Democratic presidential and vice-presidential nominees in 2028? Gavin Newsom and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leadsVery unlikely8%
The DEA published the 2,533-page transcript from its 11-day rescheduling hearing on August 25, 2026. Reporting indicated that the DEA and participating parties had filed final briefs by August 18.
Why it mattersBroader reclassification would extend Section 280E tax relief beyond FDA-approved and state-licensed medical products to the wider cannabis sector.
Will marijuana be rescheduled before 2027? Before Jan 20, 2029:Very likely88%
A New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena poll reported September 24 showed Republican Susan Collins leading Democrat Troy Jackson 49% to 46%. It marked Collins's first independent survey lead since Jackson became the nominee.
Why it mattersCollins's three-point lead remains within the poll's 4.9-point margin of error, while other contemporaneous surveys show Jackson leading or the race tied.
Who will win the 2026 Maine Senate election? Troy Jackson leadsLikely60%
Republican Casey Askar and Democrat Pia Dandiya won their respective primaries on August 18 for Florida's redrawn open seat.
Why it mattersThe Cook Political Report characterizes the cross-state district as highly competitive despite giving Askar the edge in a seat Trump carried by 11 points.
Who will win Florida’s 22nd Congressional District election? Pia Dandiya (D) leadsToss-up51%
Donald Trump signed a presidential pardon on September 3, 2026, for PGA Tour caddie Eric Larson, who served nearly 11 years on a cocaine trafficking conviction.
Why it mattersLarson's criminal conviction had prevented him from working at golf tournaments in the United Kingdom, forcing him to miss The Open in 2025.
Who will Trump pardon before 2027? Donald Brodie leadsUnlikely30%▲ from 18% yesterday
Incumbent María Elvira Salazar launched a campaign ad on September 17 challenging Donald Trump on immigration enforcement. Democratic challenger Eliott Rodriguez responded that Salazar had voted for the policies she was criticizing.
Why it mattersForecasters have shifted the district from solid Republican to likely Republican, and the DCCC lists the Miami-Dade County seat among its Florida targets.
Who will win Florida’s 27th Congressional District in 2026? Maria Elvira Salazar leadsLikely65%
NJ-07 saw Republican incumbent Tom Kean Jr. and Democrat Rebecca Bennett face off on September 27 in their only scheduled debate. Cook carries the race as a toss-up, while Sabato's Crystal Ball leans Democratic.
Why it mattersNew Jersey's 7th Congressional District is a closely watched, competitive seat where 39% of likely voters view Kean as very unfavorable.
Who will win New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District election? Rebecca Bennett (D) leadsVery likely90%
An Arizona congressional candidate was arrested on September 22 for alleged threats against a judge and an attorney's office. The New York Times reported on the district's latest polls on September 25.
Who will win Arizona’s 1st Congressional District election? Amish Shah (D) leadsLikely76%▲ from 70% a week ago
Mayor Zohran Mamdani announced the opening of the Jobs NYC Center on September 28 to connect New Yorkers to public-service careers. He marked the launch by swearing in 17 new NYC Business Express Service Team members.
Why it mattersMamdani remains strictly focused on municipal governance, leaving higher-office buzz to allies while facing a hard constitutional bar to national office.
Zohran Mamdani becoming president by Jan 22, 2045Very unlikely16%▲ from 10% yesterday
A Real Time Big Data poll reported September 26 showed incumbent Governor Mailza Assis leading Acre's gubernatorial race but tied with Republicanos contender Alan Rick.
Why it mattersUnder Brazil's election rules, a candidate must secure more than 50 percent of first-round votes to avoid a runoff.
Who will win the Acre governor election? Mailza Assis leadsLikely68%
Morena named senator on leave Ana Lilia Rivera its coordinator for the Defense of the Fourth Transformation and Sovereignty in Tlaxcala on September 28, 2026. Rivera became the virtual gubernatorial candidate following an internal survey, prompting rival Alfonso Sánchez García to leave.
Why it mattersRivera secures the nomination after losing the contest six years ago, cementing Morena's line of succession under sitting Governor Lorena Cuéllar.
Who will win the Tlaxcala governor election? Ana Lilia Rivera Rivera leadsToss-up60%