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The Likely

The news, and what's likely next.

Economy

Williams calls another rate hike reasonable as Fed weighs data

New York Fed President John Williams said September 24 that another rate hike by year-end is a reasonable expectation, though policymakers will evaluate incoming data first. A day earlier, Governor Michael Barr stated that further policy adjustments are likely needed to lower inflation.

Why it mattersSixteen of 18 FOMC participants projected another rate increase this year, keeping upward pressure on borrowing costs into year-end decisions.

Fed shift from holding to raising rates by Oct 15Unlikely28%▼ from 48% yesterday

How we got here

  1. The FOMC raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4%. Gov, Gov
  2. New York Fed President John Williams called another rate hike a reasonable expectation, pending further data collection. CNBC
  3. S&P Global scheduled the release of final September manufacturing, services, and composite PMI indicators. Spglobal
  4. The FOMC scheduled its next two-day meeting. Gov

What's likely next

  1. The Federal Reserve calendar listed September FOMC meeting minutes for release on October 7.
  2. Fed shift from holding to raising ratesVery unlikely9%
  3. Fed shift from holding to raising ratesUnlikely28%▼ from 48% yesterday

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