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The Likely

The news, and what's likely next.

Culture

Movies, music and the charts.

Culture

Troye Sivan listed as MTV VMAs presenter rather than performer

Troye Sivan was billed strictly as an award presenter for the September 27 MTV VMAs broadcast, missing the official performance slate.

Why it mattersThe designation placed Sivan on the official broadcast solely to hand out trophies rather than deliver a musical set.

2026 MTV Video Music Awards performers Long shot1%▼ from 97% yesterday

Taylor Swift expanded her album with four new tracks

Swift announced The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore on September 23, 2026, adding four new songs to her album. Nora Music projected roughly 178,000 opening album-equivalent units in the U.S.

Why it mattersInMusic reported that the projected opening week could return Swift to the No. 1 spot.

Miley Cyrus projected about 1,000 units short of Billboard 200 lead

On September 24, projections estimated Miley's Bass Persuades at 59,000 first-week units, roughly 1,000 units short of the Billboard 200 lead. Forbes also reported four album editions reached the U.S. iTunes top 10.

Why it mattersA chart-topping debut would surpass her previous album Something Beautiful, which peaked at No. 4.

Which artist will have a No. 1 album in 2026? Miley Cyrus:Very likely84%▲ from 29% a week ago

Ezra Frech ties for week two top score on Dancing with the Stars

Paralympian Ezra Frech and Daniella Karagach earned 21 out of 30 on September 22 for their Viral Hits Night cha-cha. That performance tied them for the night's highest judges' score.

Why it mattersThe performance drew media coverage highlighting Frech as a frontrunner following the broadcast.

Who will win Dancing with the Stars Season 35? Ezra Frech leadsToss-up44%▲ from 14% a week ago

Kevin Feige reiterates Marvel plans for live-action Miles Morales after Spider-Verse

Marvel Studios chief Kevin Feige reiterated in July 2026 that Marvel plans to introduce Miles Morales in live action. He stated the character will arrive after the animated Spider-Verse trilogy concludes.

Why it mattersThe plans outline a future MCU development for the Spider-Man character currently featured in Sony's animated franchise.

Will an actor be chosen to play Miles Morales in a live-action film by the end of 2027? No actor chosen by end of 2027 leadsUnlikely28%▼ from 74% yesterday

Inde Navarrette called 2027 Best Actress Oscar support an honor

On June 12, 2026, Inde Navarrette said it was an honor that people were rooting for her to win the 2027 Oscar for Best Actress. The Oscar campaign also includes Obsession director Curry Barker across three categories.

Why it mattersNavarrette previously starred in 13 Reasons Why before her breakout role as Nikki Freeman in the horror film Obsession.

Who will be nominated for a Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama? Inde Navarrette:Very likely88%▲ from 45% a week ago

Sources expect Dua Lipa and Tame Impala to headline Coachella 2027

HITS Daily Double reported on September 1, 2026, that sources expect Tame Impala and Dua Lipa to headline Coachella 2027, with Fred again.. considered for a special electronic slot. The outlet noted organizers are pursuing BTS.

Why it mattersNME's report that Coachella has not confirmed any artists cautions data-watchers that current buzz remains unverified rumors rather than concrete, finalized positioning.

Who will headline Coachella 2027? Dua Lipa:Very likely93%

HotNewHipHop reports preorders for Playboi Carti vinyl edition

Reports surfaced on March 18, 2026, detailing preorders for a 34-track vinyl variant titled Music - Sorry 4 Da Wait, paired with fresh album teases.

Why it mattersThe edition features 34 tracks after the original album included 30 songs.

Playboi Carti releasing a new song Likely75%▲ from 29% yesterday

Taylor Brown and Rick Devens advance to final Head of Household Part 3

Taylor Brown won Part 1 of the final Head of Household competition on September 24. Reporting confirmed Rick Devens won Part 2 on September 25, setting up both houseguests to face off in Part 3.

Why it mattersThe final three-part competition winner chooses a Final 2 partner, while the unchosen player is evicted in third place.

Who will place third on Big Brother Season 28? Rick Devens leadsToss-up50%

More outlooks

Questions we're following where the news is quieter today.

Who will be nominated for the Oscar for Best Supporting Actor?

Very likely86%

Paul Giamatti

  1. Paul Giamatti86%
  2. John Leguizamo74%
  3. Sam Rockwell67%

What Rotten Tomatoes score will Digger receive?

Best guess 51.8 (−2.7 in a day)

Will Tom Holland appear as Spider-Man in Avengers: Doomsday?

Almost certain96%

Hugh Jackman as Wolverine?

  1. Hugh Jackman as Wolverine?96%
  2. Ryan Reynolds as Deadpool?94%
  3. Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man?92%

Who will be the next actor to play James Bond?

Toss-up57%

Jack Lowden leads

  1. Jack Lowden57%
  2. No Bond chosen30%
  3. Callum Turner8%

How many first-week streams will Silver Sands Marina receive?

Best guess 7.0M (−2.5M in a day)

Which artist will rank second on Spotify U.S. in 2026?

Likely71%

Taylor Swift

  1. Taylor Swift71%
  2. Drake39%
  3. Bad Bunny20%

Which artist will have a top-10 song in 2026?

Almost certain97%

Mariah Carey

  1. Mariah Carey97%
  2. Post Malone85%
  3. Chappell Roan76%

Outlook: what forecasting markets expect right now. How this works