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The Likely

The news, and what's likely next.

World

Wars, diplomacy, and elections around the world.

World

Trump rejects Iranian proposal to reopen Strait of Hormuz within seven days

Donald Trump rejected an Iranian proposal conveyed through mediators to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days. Iran conditioned reopening on the U.S. lifting its naval blockade, waiving oil sanctions, and observing a ceasefire.

Why it mattersThe rejection dashes hopes for an immediate reopening of the vital maritime passage and a swift end to hostilities.

Hormuz shipping back to normal by Mar 31, 2027Unlikely37%▲ from 25% a week ago

Houthis say US and other ships will not be targeted in strait

Houthi official Mohamed al-Bukhaiti told the AP on September 20 that the group is not targeting the United States or other nations in Bab el-Mandeb, with Saudi Arabia as the sole exception.

Why it mattersJMIC confirms recent Houthi positions on Mayun Island and Mocha command both Bab el-Mandeb transit channels, shortening engagement ranges despite narrow political targeting.

Houthis successfully targeting shipping by Oct 31Toss-up52%
18%27%52%

Saudi Arabia starts East-West pipeline exports as flows reach 3.5 million barrels

Saudi Arabia started exporting crude through the repaired East-West pipeline, with flows reaching roughly 3.5 million barrels per day, Bloomberg reported on September 28.

Why it mattersThe route provides an export bypass around the Strait of Hormuz that previously carried 4% of global supply.

Saudi East-West oil pipeline restart by Oct 15Toss-up55%▲ from 42% yesterday
19%55%80%

Milei joins Trump at United Nations Shield of the Americas session

Milei and Trump participated in the Shield of the Americas session at UN headquarters on September 22, 2026. Milei urged regional security cooperation while Trump highlighted allied electoral wins in Argentina.

Why it mattersThe White House-designed initiative aims to confront drug cartels linked to China and Iran.

Who will Trump meet with in September? Javier Milei leadsLikely76%▲ from 28% a week ago

Rodríguez returns from US visit without setting Venezuelan election date

Delcy Rodríguez returned from a U.S. visit without deals or a firm election date after meeting Donald Trump. On September 23, she promised the UN General Assembly that elections will be held, but gave no date.

Why it mattersThe timing of Venezuela's promised elections remains unspecified as the interim government plans to engage opposition sectors.

Who will lead Venezuela at the end of 2026? Nicolás Maduro leadsLikely64%

Analysis & opinion

Ukrainian forces advance or hold ground east of Slovyansk

Ukrainian units maintained positions and advanced east of Slovyansk as of September 27, according to ISW. Russian forces continued attacking toward Mykolaivka between September 21 and 23 but secured no confirmed advances.

Why it mattersDenying Mykolaivka blocks Russian forces from bypassing difficult terrain to open an assault route westward into Slovyansk.

Russia entering Mykolaivka by Oct 31Unlikely21%▼ from 70% a week ago
5%21%60%

Analysis & opinion

Machado considers public return with international delegation after blocked entry attempts

Machado's team reported three failed attempts to return to Venezuela from Panama on September 21–22. Following seven total blocked attempts, reports indicate her advisers are considering a visible return accompanied by international figures.

Why it mattersMachado's return remains unresolved while supporters hold nationwide rallies demanding presidential elections, which Machado says require seven to nine months of planning.

María Corina Machado visiting Venezuela by Dec 31Unlikely37%▼ from 75% a week ago
4%37%

Lula campaign signals he may skip Globo debate without Flávio confrontation

Campaign coordinator Edinho Silva said on September 28 that Lula may skip TV Globo's October 1 debate. Silva cited format limits that restrict direct exchanges with Flávio Bolsonaro.

Why it mattersCandidates must win over 50 percent of valid votes to avoid an October 25 runoff under Tribunal Superior Eleitoral rules.

Lula participating in a debate by Oct 3Very unlikely8%▼ from 80% yesterday

Morocco's Authenticity and Modernity Party wins parliamentary election

Morocco's interior ministry confirmed on September 25 that the Authenticity and Modernity Party won the parliamentary election. Al Jazeera reported the party fell short of a majority.

Why it mattersThe vote follows mass migration attempts and deadly youth protests in Morocco.

Who will be invested as Morocco’s next prime minister? Fatima Ezzahra El Mansouri leadsToss-up53%▼ from 78% yesterday

Aleksandar Vučić resigns as president of Serbia to contest parliamentary election

Aleksandar Vučić signed his resignation as president on September 27 to participate in the upcoming parliamentary election as an ordinary citizen. National Assembly speaker Ana Brnabić was to take over as acting president.

Why it mattersBarred from a third presidential term, Vučić was proposed by his governing party as prime minister if it wins the election.

Who will become Serbia’s next prime minister? Aleksandar Vučić leadsLikely67%▲ from 52% a week ago

Delcy Rodríguez leaves New York without visiting imprisoned Nicolás Maduro

Delcy Rodríguez met Donald Trump in New York about 20 minutes from the prison holding Nicolás Maduro. She then left the city without visiting Maduro.

Why it mattersThe meeting placed Rodríguez alongside Trump while Maduro remained confined nearby in prison.

How long will Maduro spend in prison? No prison time leadsLikely62%

Analysis & opinion

Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić resigns ahead of October elections

Aleksandar Vučić resigned as president on September 27. He stepped down to run for prime minister in October elections.

Why it mattersHis resignation paves the way for early elections as Serbia prepares for both parliamentary and presidential votes.

Who will win Serbia’s next presidential election? Miloš Vučević leadsUnlikely37%▲ from 21% a week ago

Small parties will be kingmakers in Saxony-Anhalt election

Reports on September 27 indicated small parties will serve as kingmakers in the Saxony-Anhalt election.

Who will become minister-president of Saxony-Anhalt? Ulrich Siegmund leadsLikely62%▲ from 44% a week ago

Analysis & opinion

Mureșan submits Romanian cabinet list short of required majority

Siegfried Mureșan submitted his government programme to Parliament with 170 coalition votes, leaving him 63 seats short of the 233 needed for investiture. On September 28, PSD leadership unanimously confirmed it will not support the cabinet.

Why it mattersA failed vote allows President Nicușor Dan to designate a new prime minister or trigger snap parliamentary elections.

Romania’s next prime minister by Dec 31, 2027Toss-up46%
4%46%

Rafael López Aliaga leads Lima mayoral voter intention in fresh polls

Reports published on September 27 showed Rafael López Aliaga leading Lima mayoral voter intention in studies by Ipsos and Datum. Datum reported his valid-vote advantage over Carlos Bruce widened from 10.2 to 12.4 percentage points.

Why it mattersLópez Aliaga leads the polling even though Agencia Andina listed him as Popular Renewal's first councilor, reporting the party had no mayoral candidate.

Who won Lima’s mayoral election? Rafael López Aliaga leadsVery likely89%▲ from 71% a week ago

More outlooks

Questions we're following where the news is quieter today.

When will Iran and Oman reach an agreement on managing the Strait of Hormuz?

Unlikely34%

by Oct 31

3%34%

Will Clavicular wear a yarmulke in 2026?

Unlikely30%

Which company will be removed from China’s military companies list by June 30, 2027?

Toss-up42%

CATL leads

  1. CATL42%
  2. Alibaba18%
  3. Baidu18%

Will the Parti Québécois win a majority in Quebec’s general election?

Likely64%

Outlook: what forecasting markets expect right now. How this works