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The Likely

The news, and what's likely next.

Tech

AI, science and space, and the companies behind them.

Tech

CDC logs 3,659 measles cases as Pennsylvania reports four deaths

The CDC reported 3,659 confirmed nationwide cases through September 24. Pennsylvania added 55 infections in two days, bringing its state count to 890 cases and four confirmed fatalities.

Why it mattersKindergarten vaccination coverage has slipped to 92.4 percent, leaving 280,000 children vulnerable as nationwide hospitalizations reach nine percent.

ElevenLabs launched Eleven v4 speech models

On September 28, 2026, ElevenLabs launched Eleven v4 and Eleven v4 Turbo, supporting over 90 languages. Artificial Analysis's Provider Voice Arena placed Eleven v4 at number one with an Elo score of 1,319 across 1,674 samples.

Why it mattersEleven v4 took first place over Cartesia Sonic 3.6 while v4 Turbo delivers a median time to first speech of about 150 milliseconds.

Which text-to-speech AI will rank highest this week? ElevenLabs leadsVery likely88%▲ from 2% yesterday

Trump says AI will be renamed super intelligence in all US documents

U.S. diplomats were subsequently told to say super intelligence instead of artificial intelligence.

Trump renaming AI by Sept 30Unlikely26%▲ from 8% a week ago
26%46%58%

Analysis & opinion

NWS reports falling Mississippi River stages upstream

On September 28, 2026, an NWS hydrologic summary reported falling stages at upstream Mississippi River locations including Canton, Quincy, Lock and Dam 21, and Hannibal. The Corps previously instituted a low-water advisory on September 7.

Why it mattersNearly 60 percent of U.S. soybean exports move via the Mississippi River and Gulf ports, where low water threatens barge transportation efficiency.

SpaceX runs Flight 14 wet dress rehearsal ahead of first orbital attempt

SpaceX completed the Flight 14 wet dress rehearsal on September 24, 2026, loading Booster 21 and Ship 41 with propellant and running through the countdown. The test serves as a pre-launch milestone for Starship's planned first orbital flight.

Why it mattersOrbital Starship missions will enable delivery of Starlink V3 satellites and pave the way for tests including orbital propellant transfer.

Humans colonizing Mars by Jan 1, 2050Toss-up58%▲ from 20% a week ago

Anthropic releases Claude Sonnet 5.5 at unchanged token pricing

Anthropic shipped Sonnet 5.5 on September 28, 2026, holding API rates at $2 per million input and $10 per million output tokens while claiming 30% faster inference and lower per-task token consumption.

Why it mattersDevelopers gain Opus-level cybersecurity capabilities without paying higher token prices.

Virgin Galactic delays first Delta commercial flight to February 2027

On August 12, 2026, Virgin Galactic moved the first Delta spaceship's expected commercial service debut to February 2027. The shift allows more time to complete avionics and systems installations before flight testing begins in October 2026.

Why it mattersThe delay prolongs a customer-carrying commercial flight pause that began after VSS Unity's final revenue flight in June 2024.

When will Virgin Galactic launch its next commercial Delta-class SpaceShip? Before July 2027 leadsVery likely80%

Xiaomi open-sources MiMo-V2.6 models after intensive reinforcement learning runs

Xiaomi open-sourced its multimodal MiMo-V2.6-Pro and Flash models on September 22, spending $2.62 million and $850,000 on 30-step reinforcement learning runs across 750,000 trajectories each.

Why it mattersXiaomi claims Pro leads open-source models with a 46 on the Artificial Analysis index over Kimi K3, but we still need public blind Arena votes to verify it.

Which Chinese AI company will rank highest by the end of September? Xiaomi leadsVery likely92%▲ from 1% a week ago

USGS logs magnitude 6.6 quake near Tadine with no tsunami threat

USGS seismometers recorded a magnitude 6.6 earthquake at 10 kilometers depth near Tadine on September 25. An informational notice from the U.S. Tsunami Warning Centers reported no tsunami warning, advisory, watch, or threat.

Why it mattersCoastal areas face risks as strong, unusual currents and unpredictable shoreline surges may occur.

OpenAI introduces GPT-6 Sol and Luna for ChatGPT Work and Codex

OpenAI launched GPT-6 Sol and Luna on September 22 for ChatGPT Work and Codex. The lab claims GPT-6 Sol substantially improves on FrontierCode over GPT-5.6 Sol and matches Claude Fable 5.1 xhigh at much lower cost.

Why it mattersLower API prices give developers more room to iterate and tackle more ambitious tasks in Codex without using Chat models.

Which coding AI will rank highest by September 30? Claude leadsAlmost certain96%

More outlooks

Questions we're following where the news is quieter today.

Which AI lab will rank third by the end of September?

Very unlikely13%

Moonshot leads

  1. Moonshot13%
  2. DeepSeek8%
  3. SpaceXAI7%

Will two SpaceX Starships dock together before 2028?

Toss-up48%

by Jan 1, 2028

Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028?

Unlikely36%

by Dec 31, 2028

3%12%36%

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

  1. 167%
  2. 233%
  3. 31%

Where will Waymo operate in 2026?

Very likely87%

Las Vegas, NV

  1. Las Vegas, NV87%
  2. Tampa, FL86%
  3. San Diego, CA82%

Outlook: what forecasting markets expect right now. How this works