Bureau of Economic Analysis reports core inflation slowed to 3.0% in August
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on September 30 that annual inflation excluding food and energy slowed to 3.0% in August, down from 3.3% in July and lower than expected.
Why it mattersSlowing inflation supports expectations that the central bank will pause interest rate hikes in October.
How we got here
- The FOMC raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4%. Gov, CNBC
- New York Fed President John Williams stated there was no urgency after September and noted a late-year rate hike was possible. Newyorkfed
- The BEA reported August headline PCE inflation of 0.3% monthly and core PCE inflation of 0.2%. Gov
- News coverage reported that traders pared back expectations for an October Fed rate hike after the cooler-than-expected PCE report. Yahoo Finance
- The BLS scheduled the release of the September CPI data. Gov
- The FOMC was scheduled to begin its two-day meeting. Gov
- The FOMC’s next scheduled meeting after October was set to begin. Gov
What's likely next
- The FOMC scheduled its October policy meeting.
- The FOMC scheduled its next meeting after October.
All coverage
The coverage
- Fed’s Preferred Measure Of Inflation Rose Less Than Expected in AugustInvestopedia · Sep 30
- Fed’s Preferred Inflation Gauge Points to Continued Price PressuresThe New York Times · Sep 30
- US core PCE inflation softens to 3% in August vs. 3.3% expectedFXStreet · Sep 30
- US inflation rises below expectations in August, gives the Fed breathing spaceReuters · Sep 30
- Stock Market Today (Sept. 30, 2026): S&P 500 futures rise as PCE inflation comes in below expectationsYahoo Finance Australia · Sep 30
Analysis & opinion
- US Core PCE Preview: Stale or Significant for the FedStoneX · Oct 2
- PCE: Don't Confuse A Revision With Disinflation (SPX)Seeking Alpha · Sep 30
- EUR/USD Forecast: Euro Struggles to Find Support Even After U.S. PCE DataForex · Sep 29
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