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The Likely

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Elections Abroad

Route127 projection puts Parti Québécois in majority territory

A Léger survey on September 28 placed the Parti Québécois at 30% among decided voters. Route127 projected the party would secure 67 seats on September 27 (8:04 p.m. ET), crossing the 64-seat threshold needed for a majority in the 127-seat National Assembly.

Why it mattersA majority gives the party the legislative numbers needed to pursue a promised 2029 sovereignty referendum.

How we got here

  1. Fieldwork began for a one-thousand-person opinion poll. Ca
  2. A poll placed the PQ at thirty percent and the CAQ at seventeen percent, while an updated projection awarded the PQ sixty-seven seats. Ca, Ca
  3. A survey showed decided voters supporting the PQ at thirty percent, the Liberals at twenty-six, the PCQ at eighteen, and the CAQ at sixteen. Leger360
  4. Paul St-Pierre Plamondon stated in Richmond that winning a majority would help his party fulfil its commitments. Montrealgazette
  5. Quebec scheduled its provincial election for polling day. Ca

What's likely next

  1. Parti Québécois wins at least 64 of Quebec’s 127 National Assembly seatsLikely64%▲ from 35% a week ago

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