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The Likely

The news, and what's likely next.

World

Trump expects more Iran talks despite rejecting proposal to reopen Hormuz

Donald Trump rejected an Iranian proposal offering to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days in exchange for lifting the U.S. naval blockade, waiving oil sanctions, and observing a regional ceasefire. Trump stated Sunday he expects more talks this week.

Why it mattersThis matters because Iranian officials are awaiting formal mediated responses rather than treating public political statements as the definitive end of transit diplomacy.

Next senior U.S.-Iran diplomatic meeting by Dec 31Very likely80%

How we got here

  1. The United States and Israel launched airstrikes against Iran, beginning the conflict. House of Commons Library
  2. The United States and Iran signed a 14-point memorandum of understanding establishing a 60-day period for bilateral talks. House of Commons Library
  3. Araghchi outlined Iran's seven-day proposal to reopen Hormuz and resume talks if the United States met certain conditions. AP
  4. Trump stated that he rejected Iran's conditional proposal to reopen Hormuz and resume nuclear talks. Al Jazeera

What's likely next

  1. As early as Monday, September 28: Qatari mediators were expected to meet separately with Araghchi and Witkoff.
  2. Next senior U.S.-Iran diplomatic meetingUnlikely33%
  3. Next senior U.S.-Iran diplomatic meetingVery likely80%

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