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The Likely

The news, and what's likely next.

Iran · The big questions

Will the United States launch a military offensive to establish control over any part of Iran by December 31, 2026?

One of the biggest open questions on Iran, updated every morning · How outlooks work

The outlook

United States launches a military offensive to establish control over any part of Iran by December 31, 2026

14% Very unlikely

As of Sep 29, 5:15 PM ET · what forecasting markets expect, not a guarantee. How this works

The last six weeks

16% on Aug 15 · 14% now

More big questions on Iran

United States and Iran reach a final nuclear deal by Dec 31, 2027Very unlikely14% Israel-Iran ceasefire continues through Dec 31Likely68% Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by Dec 31, 2028Likely71% Iran’s current ruling regime ceases to govern by December 31, 2026Very unlikely6% Iran agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by Dec 31, 2027Very unlikely6%