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Brazil's Election

AtlasIntel poll places Elmano de Freitas and Ciro Gomes in technical tie

By The Likely · Updated Sep 30, 6:58 AM ET · Drawn from 3 sources · Written by AI, checked against sources

An AtlasIntel poll on September 29 showed incumbent Elmano de Freitas with 49% and Ciro Gomes with 47.6% in a technical tie. Datafolha previously tracked the race to a near-tie at 44% to 43% on September 25.

Why it mattersWith runoff numbers showing a near tie, residents may have to prepare for an extended campaign season.

How we got here

  1. The political alliance involving the PT and PDT broke apart over the choice of a Ceará gubernatorial candidate; Ciro and Elmano’s camps ended up on opposing sides. Globo
  2. Ciro Gomes rejoined the PSDB, the party under which he had previously served as governor. Globo
  3. A poll placed Ciro at 46% and Elmano at 37% in a stimulated first-round scenario. Br
  4. Polling showed Ciro leading Elmano 47% to 40% in the first round and 51% to 43% in a runoff. Globo
  5. A poll indicated Ciro's first-round lead over Elmano narrowed to seven points at 47% to 40%. Br
  6. A survey showed Ciro at 44% and Elmano at 43%, falling within the margin of error. Globo
  7. A survey placed Elmano at 49% and Ciro at 47.6%, leaving them technically tied in the first round. Br
  8. Brazil’s first-round general election, including the Ceará governor vote, is scheduled. Br

What's likely next

  1. Possible second round, if required.

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