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The Likely

The news, and what's likely next.

Brazil's Election · The big questions

Who will win Brazil’s 2026 presidential election?

Who leads

Flávio Bolsonaro 60%

Then Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (42%), Ciro Gomes (1%)

As of Oct 3, 7:06 AM ET · what forecasting markets expect, not a guarantee. How this works

The last six weeks

Flávio Bolsonaro: 36% on Aug 20 · 60% now