Sunday, October 4, 2026Track recordHow this worksGet the morning briefing

The Likely

The news, and what's likely next.

The Midterms

Aaron Flint and Sam Forstag nearly tie in Montana House poll

A survey conducted September 19–24 found Republican Aaron Flint leading Democrat Sam Forstag 45.9% to 45.4% in Montana's 1st Congressional District.

Why it mattersThe outcome will decide who represents western Montana in the US House.

How we got here

  1. Forstag declared victory in the Democratic primary, while Flint won the Republican primary. Montanafreepress
  2. Flint and Forstag appeared to be in a dead heat in the election race. Montanafreepress
  3. Forstag released a new ad, Flint alleged improper lobbying compensation, and a PAC bought ads supporting Flint. Montanarightnow
  4. Montana's general-election voting period began. Montanafreepress
  5. Montana held its general election. Montanafreepress

All coverage

Something wrong or missing? Tell us.

More on The Midterms