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The Likely

The news, and what's likely next.

Economy

Iran offers seven-day Hormuz reopening conditioned on lifted US blockade

On September 22, a senior Iranian official told Reuters that Iran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the U.S. lifts its blockade of Iranian ports and eases military pressure.

Why it mattersA prolonged closure imperils a chokepoint that carried about one-fifth of global oil and gas shipments before the war, while shipping faces ongoing interference and attacks.

Hormuz shipping back to normal by Mar 31, 2027Unlikely37%▲ from 25% a week ago

How we got here

  1. Attackers targeted an inbound tanker and an outbound LPG tanker in the Strait, resulting in no reported crew injuries. UKMTO

What's likely next

  1. Iran has offered to reopen the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz and resume nuclear talks with the U.S. within seven days if Washington accepts its conditions. The proposal comes as tensions
  2. Hormuz shipping back to normalUnlikely37%▲ from 25% a week ago
  3. Hormuz shipping back to normalLikely72%

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