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Economy

Citigroup pushes expected first rate cut to June 2027 after August payrolls

By The Likely · Updated Sep 28, 5:22 PM ET · Drawn from 3 sources · Written by AI, checked against sources

After the BLS reported on September 4 that August payrolls grew by 162,000 with unemployment at 4.1%, Citigroup shifted its forecast for the first rate cut to June 2027.

Why it mattersFed projections place the median rate at 4.1% for both year-end 2026 and 2027, signaling borrowing costs could stay higher for longer as inflation remains elevated.

Will the Fed cut interest rates in October 2027? Fed maintains rate leadsLikely74%

How we got here

  1. Payrolls rose by 162,000 as unemployment held at 4.1%, prompting Citigroup to delay its forecast for the first rate cut. Gov, Kitco
  2. Initial unemployment claims fell by 1,000 to reach 197,000. Gov
  3. The Federal Open Market Committee convened for its scheduled two-day meeting. Gov

What's likely next

  1. FOMC’s scheduled two-day meeting; the Federal Reserve calendar lists a press conference on October 28.

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