Iran · The big questions
When will Iran agree to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile?
The outlook
Iran agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by Dec 31, 2027
6% Very unlikely
As of Sep 29, 5:15 PM ET · what forecasting markets expect, not a guarantee. How this works
The last six weeks
8% on Aug 16 · 6% now
More big questions on Iran
United States launches a military offensive to establish control over any part of Iran by December 31, 2026Very unlikely14%
United States and Iran reach a final nuclear deal by Dec 31, 2027Very unlikely14%
Israel-Iran ceasefire continues through Dec 31Likely68%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by Dec 31, 2028Likely71%
Iran’s current ruling regime ceases to govern by December 31, 2026Very unlikely6%