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The Likely

The news, and what's likely next.

The Fed

Fed's John Williams sees no urgency for another rate hike

New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said on September 29 that officials have time to gather more economic information, pushing back against the need for another quick interest rate increase.

How we got here

  1. Williams said there was no need to rush another increase and expected one late hike only if the economy matched forecasts. Newyorkfed, Newyorkfed
  2. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60% in a unanimous decision. Au
  3. The BEA scheduled the release of its Personal Income and Outlays report, including PCE inflation data. Gov
  4. The Federal Reserve scheduled the release of minutes from its previous FOMC meeting. Gov
  5. The next FOMC meeting is scheduled to begin; it runs through October 28, when the Fed’s calendar schedules the press conference. Gov

What's likely next

  1. Late 2026, conditional: Williams said one further upward adjustment may be appropriate if the economy evolves broadly as he forecast; he said incoming data would guide the decision.
  2. The BEA scheduled its August 2026 Personal Income and Outlays report, which includes PCE inflation data.
  3. The Federal Reserve scheduled publication of the September 15–16 FOMC meeting minutes.
  4. Fed leave rates unchanged or raise them by 25 basis pointsLikely62%▲ from 26% yesterday

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